Bloomberg Calculator Estimates 7 Years Until “Back to Normal”

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According to the Bloomberg database tracking Covid-19 shots administered around the globe, which more than 119 million shots so far, the length of the pandemic length can be measured in the amount of vaccinations based on the suggestion of U.S. science officials such as Anthony Fauci that it will take 70%-85% of the population to be vaccinated for things to return to normal.

Using a 75% coverage rate with a two-dose vaccine as a target and looking at the current vaccination rate of 1,339,525 doses per day, it would take the United States 11 months to “get back to normal”. Western countries however are vaccinating at a higher rate than the rest of the world, and it will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace.

These numbers are estimates and only provide a snapshot based on current vaccination rates.  These numbers can be skewed with disruptions – for example a winter blizzard in New York prevented some from getting vaccinated, throwing off their target.  One thing most experts agree on is that the pace is likely to pick up as more vaccines become available. 

Bloomberg’s calculations are based on the two full dose vaccine.  They are based on two doses per person but do not distinguish between the two doses.  This messes with the daily vaccination rates.  More data will be crunches soon as well with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine showing positive results in latest testing. 

For more information be sure to check back with the ABN Blog regularly.

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